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https://doi.org/10.1109/icsmc....
Article . 2006 . Peer-reviewed
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A Bankruptcy Prediction Method Based on Cash Flow Using SOM

SOMを用いたキャッシュ・フローにもとづく倒産予測手法の提案
Authors: Iori Nakaoka; Kyuichiro Tani; Yukinobu Hoshino; Katsuari Kamei;

A Bankruptcy Prediction Method Based on Cash Flow Using SOM

Abstract

Bankruptcy prediction is more important than a changing of the stock price for investors because they will have a big loss if the investing company goes bankrupt. There are some methods using discriminant analysis, such as Altman's Z-score for the bankruptcy prediction. However, these methods have a problem that their precisions decrease when there is a big difference between the number of the bankruptcy companies and the existing companies. It is also difficult for them to predict the black-ink bankruptcy in recent years because they adopt general management indices. This paper describes a new bankruptcy prediction system available even in such cases by adopting "Cash Flows" which must be more important indices than the profit, sales and so on in the bankruptcy. First, the system selects cash flow indices by factor analysis to hundle the money changes. Second, the system makes a SOM map and predict bankruptcies by evaluating not individual company indices but interrelationships between companies indices by SOM. Third, prediction errors and their accuracies are discussed. Finally, we compare results of our method with those of the discriminant analysis including Altman's Z-score and show the usefulness of our method.

Keywords

キャッシュ・フロー, Self-organizing Maps, Self-organizing maps, 判別分析, 因子分析, Cash flow, 倒産予測, Bankruptcy prediction, 自己組織化マップ, Factor analysis, Discriminant analysis

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
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