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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao IRIS UNIMORE - Archi...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
https://doi.org/10.31410/eman....
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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ENERGY RISK MANAGEMENT BY VALUE-AT-RISK

Authors: Gianfreda, Angelica; Scandolo, Giacomo;

ENERGY RISK MANAGEMENT BY VALUE-AT-RISK

Abstract

Model risk has an important effect on risk measurements. Indeed, the choice of the underlying probabilistic model can have a significant impact on the risk forecast. The hazard of producing poor risk assessments due to the choice of an unsuited model is known as “model risk”. Its detection and quantification are crucial tasks, particularly with energy commodities which require more complex modelling compared to the ones needed in traditional financial markets. Using a normalized measure of model risk for the forecast of daily Value-at-Risk, we focus on a restricted set of plausible models within the GARCH-type class specified with nine different distributions. In this way, we are able to provide a more reliable assessment of model risk for two energy commodities (natural gas and crude oil) over the years from 2001 to 2015.

Country
Italy
Keywords

Relative Measure of Model Risk, VaR, GARCH models, One-step ahead Forecasting, Natural Gas, Crude Oil

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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