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Real-Time Crash Prediction Model for Application to Crash Prevention in Freeway Traffic

Authors: Chris Lee; Bruce Hellinga; Frank Saccomanno;

Real-Time Crash Prediction Model for Application to Crash Prevention in Freeway Traffic

Abstract

The likelihood of a crash or crash potential is significantly affected by the short-term turbulence of traffic flow. For this reason, crash potential must be estimated on a real-time basis by monitoring the current traffic condition. In this regard, a probabilistic real-time crash prediction model relating crash potential to various traffic flow characteristics that lead to crash occurrence, or “crash precursors,” was developed. In the development of the previous model, however, several assumptions were made that had not been clearly verified from either theoretical or empirical perspectives. Therefore, the objectives of the present study were to ( a) suggest the rational methods by which the crash precursors included in the model can be determined on the basis of experimental results and ( b) test the performance of the modified crash prediction model. The study found that crash precursors can be determined in an objective manner, eliminating a characteristic of the previous model, in which the model results were dependent on analysts’ subjective categorization of crash precursors.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
223
Top 1%
Top 1%
Top 10%
bronze