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https://doi.org/10.31224/3763...
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Fast Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis through Adaptive Importance Sampling

Authors: Soung Eil Houng; Luis Ceferino;

Fast Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis through Adaptive Importance Sampling

Abstract

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) traditionally relies on two computationally intensive approaches: (a) Riemann Sum and (b) conventional Monte Carlo (MC) integration. The former requires fine slices across magnitude, distance, and ground motion, and the latter demands extensive synthetic earthquake catalogs. Both approaches become notably resource intensive for low-probability seismic hazards, where achieving a COV of 1% for a 10−4 annual hazard probability may require 108 MC samples. We introduce Adaptive Importance Sampling (AIS) PSHA, a novel framework to approximate optimal importance sampling (IS) distributions and dramatically reduce the number of MC samples to estimate hazards. We evaluate the efficiency and accuracy of our proposed framework using Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) PSHA benchmarks that cover various seismic sources, including areal, vertical, and dipping faults, as well as combined types. Our approach computes seismic hazard up to 3.7×104 and 7.1×103 times faster than Riemann Sum and traditional MC methods, respectively, maintaining COVs below 1%. We also propose an enhanced approach with a “smart” AIS PSHA variant that leverages the sampling densities from similar ground motion intensities. This variant outperforms even “smart” implementations of Riemann Sum with enhanced grid discretizations by a factor of up to 130. Moreover, we demonstrate theoretically that optimal IS distributions are equivalent to hazard disaggregation distributions. Empirically, we show the approximated optimal IS and the disaggregation distributions are closely alike, e.g., with a Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistic between 0.017 and 0.113. This approach is broadly applicable, especially for PSHA cases requiring extensive logic trees and epistemic uncertainty.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
hybrid