This study aims to analyze the development of fiscal capacity, fiscal needs, and the magnitude and trend of the fiscal gap in Aceh Province during the period 2015–2024. The fiscal gap refers to the difference between a region's fiscal needs and its fiscal capacity, reflecting the degree of dependence on central government transfers. This study employs a descriptive quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from the Aceh Regional Budget Realization Reports (APBA), the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance, and the Central Statistics Agency of Aceh Province. The analysis was conducted through two scenarios: Scenario I uses autonomous fiscal capacity (Regional Own-Source Revenue/PAD + Revenue Sharing Funds/DBH), while Scenario II additionally incorporates Special Autonomy Funds (PAD + DBH + Dana Otsus). The results indicate that Aceh's autonomous fiscal capacity averaged only IDR 2.79 trillion per year, equivalent to 26.3% of the average fiscal need of IDR 10.62 trillion per year. Under Scenario I, the fiscal gap remained persistently positive throughout the study period, averaging IDR 7.82 trillion per year with a ratio of 0.73. Under Scenario II, Special Autonomy Funds reduced the fiscal gap by an average of 89.5% per year, bringing it down to an average of only IDR 718.03 billion per year. However, the Scenario II fiscal gap ratio deteriorated following the sharp decline in Special Autonomy Funds in 2023. These findings demonstrate that Aceh Province has not achieved fiscal independence and remains highly vulnerable to the expiration of Special Autonomy Funds in 2027.