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Alanya Academic Review
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
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An Extensive Analysis of FTSE 100 Realized Volatility with Different Information Channels

Authors: Burak Korkusuz;

An Extensive Analysis of FTSE 100 Realized Volatility with Different Information Channels

Abstract

Bu makale, Avrupa Birliği ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nden gelen dış bilgi akışlarının FTSE 100 endeksinin oynaklığı üzerindeki etkisini, 5 dakikalık gün içi verilerden türetilen gerçekleşen varyans (RV) verilerini kullanarak araştırmaktadır. Dış faktörler, Birleşik Krallık'a özgü, Avrupa bölgesi ve ABD odaklı gruplar olarak kategorize edilerek, bu değişkenler HAR-RV modeline entegre edilmiştir ve böylece oynaklık tahminlerinin doğruluğu artırılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar, küresel ve bölgesel faktörlerin, özellikle S&P 500 ve NASDAQ gibi ABD piyasa göstergelerinin, FTSE 100 oynaklığı üzerinde önemli bir etkisi olduğunu, ancak Birleşik Krallık'a özgü yerel faktörlerin ek bilgi içermediğini göstermektedir. Tüm ABD odaklı değişkenleri içeren ABD odaklı Kitchen-Sink modeli, hem örnek içi hem de örnek dışı tahminlerde en etkili model olduğunu kanıtlamıştır. Yüksek frekanslı verilerin kullanımı bu bağlamda kritik öneme sahiptir, çünkü piyasa oynaklığının daha hassas bir şekilde ölçülmesine ve tahmin edilmesine olanak tanımaktadır. Bu bulgular, FTSE 100 gibi uluslararası yönelimli hisse senedi endekslerinin oynaklığını modelleme ve tahmin etmede geniş bir dış faktör yelpazesinin dahil edilmesinin önemini vurgulamaktadır.

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Keywords

Volatility Forecasting;Realized Volatility;HAR-RV-X model;Information Channels;FTSE 100, Volatilite Tahmini;Gerçekleşen Volatilite;HAR-RV-X modeli;Bilgi Kanalları;FTSE 100, Econometric and Statistical Methods, Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler, Economic Models and Forecasting, Ekonomik Modeller ve Öngörü

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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