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Revista Brasileira de Biometria
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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Revista Brasileira de Biometria
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Monitoramento Online da Dengue

Authors: Rafael IZBICKI; Letícia Octaviano da CRUZ;

Monitoramento Online da Dengue

Abstract

Infelizmente, relatórios oficiais sobre o avanço no número de casos de epidemias como a dengue levam muito tempo para serem divulgados, o que faz com que a população viva em estado de desinformação e gestores públicos tenham dificuldades em implementar políticas para combater as proliferações. Neste trabalho, mostramos como dados coletados gratuitamente em tempo real pelo Google Trends podem ser utilizados para que se preveja o número diário de novos casos de dengue no estado de São Paulo. Para estimar a evolução de tal quantidade, foram utilizados o método dos mínimos quadrados, lasso e florestas aleatórias, com covariáveis criadas a partir da mensuração do volume de buscas diárias de algumas palavras-chave, como "tratamento dengue", "sintomas dengue" e "febre dengue". O modelo estimado através do método dosmínimos quadrados foi o que apresentou melhores predições, se mostrando adequado para fornecer estimativas atualizadas do número de casos de dengue para um período de até oito meses após a divulgação do último relatório oficial. Isso possibilita que os órgãos competentes e o governo adotem medidas necessárias para contenção de epidemias de modo mais eficaz e barato que o tradicional.

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    popularity
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
gold