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https://doi.org/10.26512/2014....
Doctoral thesis . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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Estimação de ordem em modelos AR, ARCH e BEKK-GARCH usando o critério EDC

Authors: Resende, Paulo Angelo Alves;

Estimação de ordem em modelos AR, ARCH e BEKK-GARCH usando o critério EDC

Abstract

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Matemática, 2014. ; O critério de informação EDC – Efficient Determination Criterion – foi proposto originalmente para definir uma classe de estimadores de ordem para cadeias deMarkov de espaço de estados finitos. Nesse trabalho, o conceito de modelos parcialmente aninhados é definido e a classe de estimadores EDC é estendida nesse contexto. Esses resultados são aplicados para estabelecer a consistência forte de um novo estimador de ordem para modelos Autoregressivos (AR) e para demonstrar a consistência forte de uma classe de estimadores de ordem para processos Autoregressivos de Heteroscedasticidade Condicional (ARCH) e para o caso multivariado de modelos Autoregressivos de Heteroscedasticidade Condicional Generalizado na Representação BEKK (BEKK-GARCH). Como resultado imediato, a consistência forte dos estimadores de ordem BIC para ARCH e BEKK-GARCH é estabelecida. Também é ilustrado por meio de simulações numéricas que o estimador de ordem EDC proposto para processos AR apresenta melhor performance que suas principais alternativas, os estimadores baseados nos crit´erios AIC, BIC e HQC. ; The Efficient Determination Criterion (EDC) was originally stated to define a class of estimators for the order of a Markov chain with finite state space. In this work, we define the concept of partially nested models and extend the class of EDC estimators within this context. This framework is applied to establish the consistency for a new order estimator for Autoregressive process (AR) and to prove the consistency for a class of order estimators for Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models (ARCH) and for a multivariate version, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity in the BEKK representation (BEKK-GARCH). As an immediate consequence, the strong consistency for the BIC order estimators for ARCH and BEKK-GARCH is established. Also, using numerical simulation, we show that the proposed EDC order estimator for AR ...

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Brazil
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Keywords

Processo estocástico, Processos de Markov

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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