
doi: 10.26021/15355
handle: 10092/107083
To reduce flood risk, it is crucial to accurately estimate design floods, which is a flood discharge associated with a specific annual exceedance probability. The main aim of this study is to devise an approach to carry out a Regional Flood Frequency Analysis within hydrologically similar sub-regions to estimate design floods for gauged and ungauged catchments with diverse climate and catchment characteristics. In such catchments, traditional regionalisation approaches usually fail due to a high level of inhomogeneity. The developed RFFA approach was evaluated using 363 catchments in New Zealand, a country with hydrologically diverse regions. It was found that using climate zones and catchment characteristics led to a higher degree of homogeneity than traditional sub-divisions. Cluster analysis based on catchment attributes was applied to further delineate homogenous regions, which resulted in 21 sub-regions. The two-parameter Log-Normal and Pearson 3 distributions were identified as the dominant regional probability distributions for these sub-regions. Next, the Generalised Additive Model coupled with the Index Flood L-moment approach was employed to estimate regionalised design floods of various return periods. Model performance was assessed using a Jackknife Resampling procedure. The results indicated significantly smaller error estimates for all estimated design floods than prior RFFA studies in New Zealand. The approach provides region-specific design values to inform flood risk management. It allows for robust design flood estimation in both gauged and ungauged catchments and can be implemented in other regions.
550, Generalised Additive Model, Index Flood, Regionalisation, Flood Frequency Analysis, Exemplar-based Agglomerative Clustering, Generalised Additive Model, Index Flood, Regionalisation, Flood Frequency Analysis, Exemplar-based Agglomerative Clustering
550, Generalised Additive Model, Index Flood, Regionalisation, Flood Frequency Analysis, Exemplar-based Agglomerative Clustering, Generalised Additive Model, Index Flood, Regionalisation, Flood Frequency Analysis, Exemplar-based Agglomerative Clustering
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