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Efficiency in indirect inference

Authors: Gach, Florian;

Efficiency in indirect inference

Abstract

Es seien $X_{1},\ldots,X_{n}$ unabhängige, identisch verteilte Zufallsvariablen, und es liege ein (möglicherweise misspezifiziertes) parametrisches Modell mit Parameterraum $\Theta\subseteq\mathbb{R}^{m}$ vor. In dieser Arbeit erweitern wir die `Indirect Inference'-Methode durch Verwendung nicht-parametrischer Auxiliarmodelle. Dazu definieren wir den sogenannten auxiliaren Maximum-Likelihood-Schätzer $\hat{p}_{n}$ als Maximierer der Likelihood-Funktion über das gewählte Auxiliarmodell. Für Daten $X_{1}(\theta),\ldots,X_{k(n)}(\theta)$, die nach dem gegebenen Modell simuliert werden, definieren wir analog $\tilde{p}_{k(n)}(\theta)$ als Maximierer der entsprechenden Likelihood-Funktion. Wir zeigen zunächst, dass $\hat{p}_{n}$ und $\tilde{p}_{k(n)}(\theta)$ existieren und eindeutig sind, und definieren dann $\hat{\theta}_{n,k(n)}$ als Minimierer einer geeignet gewichteten $L^{2}$-Distanz zwischen $\hat{p}_{n}$ und $\tilde{p}_{k}(\theta)$. Wir beweisen, dass $\hat{\theta}_{n,k(n)}$ asymptotisch normalverteilt ist, so $k(n)$ von der Ordnung $n^{2+\alpha}$ mit $\alpha>0$ gewählt wird. Weiters zeigen wir, dass $\hat{\theta}_{n,k(n)}$ asymptotisch effizient ist, wenn das gegebene Modell korrekt spezifiert ist. Darüber hinaus untersuchen wir das asymptotische Verhalten von $\hat{\theta}_{n,k(n)}$ unter beliebigen konvergenten Parameterfolgen und erhalten wiederum asymptotische Effizienz. Schließlich zeigen wir, dass die auxiliaren Maximum-Likelihood-Schätzer Lösungen von endlich-dimensionalen Gleichungssystemen sind, was deren Berechnung ermöglicht.

We extend the method of indirect inference by using \emph{non-parametric} auxiliary models of densities. Suppose we observe i.i.d.~random variables $X_{1},\ldots,X_{n}$ and are given a (possibly misspecified) parametric model with parameter set $\Theta\subseteq\mathbb{R}^{m}$. The auxiliary maximum likelihood estimator given $X_{1},\ldots,X_{n}$ is defined as the maximizer of the auxiliary likelihood function and is denoted by $\hat{p}_{n}$. Similarly, for data $X_{1}(\theta),\ldots,X_{k(n)}(\theta)$ that are simulated according to the parametric model, define $\tilde{p}_{k(n)}(\theta)$ as the maximizer of the corresponding auxiliary likelihood function. We show that $\hat{p}_{n}$ and $\tilde{p}_{k(n)}(\theta)$ are unique, thereby allowing to define an indirect inference estimator $\hat{\theta}_{n,k(n)}$ as minimizer of an appropriately weighted $L^{2}$-distance between $\hat{p}_{n}$ and $\tilde{p}_{k(n)}(\theta)$. We prove that $\hat{\theta}_{n,k(n)}$ is asymptotically normal if $k(n)$ is chosen of order $n^{2+\alpha}$ for some $\alpha>0$; and that it is asymptotically efficient under correct specification of the parametric model. We also investigate the asymptotic behaviour of $\hat{\theta}_{n,k(n)}$ under convergent sequences of parameters and again obtain asymptotic efficiency. Finally, we show that the auxiliary maximum likelihood estimators are solutions of finite-dimensional systems of equations, thereby suggesting how to compute them.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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