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Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Testing the Armey Curve Hypothesis in Turkey: Evidence from the Provincial Data

Authors: Şanlı, Devran; Şanlı, Devran;

Testing the Armey Curve Hypothesis in Turkey: Evidence from the Provincial Data

Abstract

This study aims to empirically test the Armey Curve hypothesis (optimal government size) for Turkey with panel data consisting of 81 provinces and 17 years. In this context, a quadratic model has been established in which economic growth is the dependent variable, and public expenditures are the independent variable. AMG estimates obtain the optimal size of public expenditures. The results indicate that the optimal level of public expenditures is 25.2%. Moreover, province-specific findings provide that the Armey curve is valid in 16 provinces, and the critical point of the curve takes values ranging from 12%(Istanbul) to 46%(Elazig). Considering the average volume of public expenditures is 31.6% throughout the panel, it is concluded that the expenditures exceed the optimal level. These results show that public expenditures are in the region of diminishing returns. Therefore, in order to maximize the growth rate, public expenditures should be reduced to an optimal level.

Country
Turkey
Related Organizations
Keywords

İşletme, Economic Growth, Panel AMG., Armey Curve, Optimal Public Expenditures;Economic Growth;Armey Curve;Panel AMG., Optimal Public Expenditures, İktisat, Business Administration

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
gold