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Equilibrium Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan dan Ekonomi
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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PREDIKTOR KINERJA IHSG DENGAN PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

Authors: Arief Surya Lesmana; Herma Wiharno; Yasir Maulana; Odang Supriatna; Yanneri Elfa Kiswara Rahmantya;

PREDIKTOR KINERJA IHSG DENGAN PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

Abstract

AbstrakPasar modal merupakan salah satu sarana investasi yang dapat memberikan keuntungan dengan risiko tertentu. Untuk memperoleh keuntungan yang optimal, diperlukan informasi mengenai faktor-faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi kinerja pasar modal. Objek dalam penelitian ini adalah Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menguji secara empiris pengaruh inflasi, tingkat suku bunga, nilai tukar, jumlah uang beredar, harga minyak dunia, dan Indeks Dow Jones terhadap kinerja IHSG dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Penelitian ini menggunakan teknik Error Correction Model (ECM) untuk menganalisis data pada periode Januari 2017 sampai Desember 2021. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang kinerja Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh inflasi, tingkat suku bunga, nilai tukar USD/IDR, harga minyak dunia, dan Indeks Dow Jones. Sedangkan dalam jangka pendek kinerja IHSG hanya dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh nilai tukar USD/IDR, harga minyak dunia, dan Indeks Dow Jones. Berdasarkan temuan dalam penelitian ini, penting bagi pemerintah untuk focus dalam menjaga stabilitas perekonomian nasional dan sigap dalam mengantisipasi pengaruh factor eksternal agar kinjera HISG tetap terjaga. Kata Kunci: IHSG; Makroekonomi; ECM AbstractA capital market is an investment place that can provide returns with certain risks. In order to obtain optimal returns, information on the factors that can affect the performance of the capital market is needed. The object of this research is Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) This study empirically examined the effect of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, world oil prices, and the Dow Jones Index on JCI performance in the long and short term. This study uses the Error Correction Model (ECM) technique to analyze data for the period from January 2017 to December 2021. The results of the analysis show that in the long term, the JCI performance is significantly affected by inflation, interest rates, USD/IDR exchange rates, world oil prices, and the Dow Jones Index. Meanwhile, in the short term, the JCI’s performance was only significantly affected by the USD/IDR exchange rates, world oil prices, and the Dow Jones Index. Based on the findings in this study, it is important for the government to focus on maintaining the stability of the national economy and be alert in anticipating the influence of external factors so that the HISG is maintained. Keywords: IHSG; Macroeconomics; ECM

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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