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Research.fi
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Research.fi
FUZZY ECONOMIC REVIEW
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
LUTPub
Article . 2018
Data sources: LUTPub
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NEW INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING TOOL THAT COMBINES A FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM WITH REAL OPTION ANALYSIS

Authors: Kozlova Mariia; Collan Mikael; Luukka Pasi;

NEW INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING TOOL THAT COMBINES A FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM WITH REAL OPTION ANALYSIS

Abstract

This paper proposes a new procedure for enriching investment and real option analysis performed with the fuzzy pay-off method by decomposing the pay-off distribution into multiple sub-distributions that correspond to different investment scenarios. This creates more information about the importance of the effect of selected factors to investment profitability. Furthermore, based on the proposed procedure, we show how a fuzzy inference system to support investment decision-making can be constructed. The proposed new procedure and the application of a fuzzy inference system are illustrated with a numerical case analysis of a power generation investment. The results show that the proposed new procedure reveals actionable information about the analyzed investment that may otherwise remain uncovered and enhances the decision-making ability of investment managers. The application of a fuzzy inference system to investment decision-support and real option analysis is a rather new approach. The obtained results highlight how the construct of a fuzzy inference system must be adapted to the perspective of the application for which it is used.

Country
Finland
Keywords

renewable resources and conservation, capital budgeting, mathematical and simulation modeling, corporate finance and governance

  • BIP!
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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    4
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Average
Average
Average
bronze