
This paper examines the correlation between uncertainty and real GDP growth. We use the volatility of real GDP growth from a VAR, stock market volatility, survey-based forecast dispersion, and the index from Jurado et al. (2015) as proxies for uncertainty. In each case, a stronger negative correlation emerged in 2008. We contend the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the federal funds rate contributed to our finding. To test our theory, we estimate a New Keynesian model with a ZLB constraint to generate a data-driven, forward-looking uncertainty measure. The correlations between that measure and real GDP growth are close to the values in the data.
monetary policy; uncertainty; economic activity; zero lower bound, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:E47, jel: jel:E58
monetary policy; uncertainty; economic activity; zero lower bound, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:E47, jel: jel:E58
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