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The Economic Journal
Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
https://doi.org/10.24149/wp140...
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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The Zero Lower Bound and Endogenous Uncertainty

Authors: Plante, Michael D.; Richter, Alexander; Throckmorton, Nathaniel;

The Zero Lower Bound and Endogenous Uncertainty

Abstract

This paper examines the correlation between uncertainty and real GDP growth. We use the volatility of real GDP growth from a VAR, stock market volatility, survey-based forecast dispersion, and the index from Jurado et al. (2015) as proxies for uncertainty. In each case, a stronger negative correlation emerged in 2008. We contend the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the federal funds rate contributed to our finding. To test our theory, we estimate a New Keynesian model with a ZLB constraint to generate a data-driven, forward-looking uncertainty measure. The correlations between that measure and real GDP growth are close to the values in the data.

Keywords

monetary policy; uncertainty; economic activity; zero lower bound, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:E47, jel: jel:E58

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
48
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze