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The Deep Historical Roots of Macroeconomic Volatility

Authors: Tang, Sam Hak Kan; Leung, Charles Ka Yui;

The Deep Historical Roots of Macroeconomic Volatility

Abstract

We present cross‐country evidence that a country's macroeconomic volatility, measured either by the standard deviation of output growth or the occurrence of trend‐growth breaks, is significantly affected by the country's historical variables. In particular, countries with longer histories of state‐level political institutions experience less macroeconomic volatility in post‐war periods. Robustness checks reveal that the effect of this historical variable on volatility remains significant and substantial after controlling for a host of structural variables investigated in previous studies. We also find that the state history variable is more important in countries with a higher level of macroeconomic volatility.

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Keywords

Political stability, O10, O43, O33, history of State-level institution, ddc:330, Macroeconomic volatility, History of agriculture, Technology adoption

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
bronze