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Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth?

Authors: Alexander Chudik; Kamiar Mohaddes; M. Hashem Pesaran; Mehdi Raissi;

Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth?

Abstract

This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop tests for threshold effects in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross-sectionally dependent errors and illustrate, by means of Monte Carlo experiments, that they perform well in small samples. On the empirical side, using data on a sample of 40 countries (grouped into advanced and developing) over the 1965-2010 period, we and no evidence for a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and economic growth, once we account for the impact of global factors and their spillover effects. Regardless of the threshold, however, we find significant negative long-run effects of public debt build-up on output growth. Provided that public debt is on a downward trajectory, a country with a high level of debt can grow just as fast as its peers.

Country
United Kingdom
Keywords

Panel tests of threshold effects, 38 Economics, 3801 Applied Economics, long-run relationships, cross-section dependence, F34, debt, and inflation, estimation and inference, ddc:330, large dynamic heterogeneous panels, and inflation., panel tests of threshold effects, long-run relationships, estimation and inference, large dynamic heterogeneous panels, cross-section dependence, debt, and inflation, 3802 Econometrics, panel tests of threshold effects, E62, H60, Debt;Economic growth;Public debt;Econometric models;Panel analysis;Panel tests of threshold effects, long-run relationships, estimation and inference, large dynamic heterogeneous panels, cross-section dependence, and inflation, variables, gdp, cd, inflation, Models with Panel Data, International Lending and Debt Problems, General, and inflation.,, C23, jel: jel:E62, jel: jel:C23, jel: jel:H60, jel: jel:F34, jel: jel:H6

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
359
Top 0.1%
Top 1%
Top 1%
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gold