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KDI Journal of Economic Policy
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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KDI Journal of Economic Policy
Article
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KDI Journal of Economic Policy
Article . 2014
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Analysis on Recent Changes in the Covered Interest Rate Parity Condition

Authors: Kim, Jung Sung; Kang, Kyu Ho;

Analysis on Recent Changes in the Covered Interest Rate Parity Condition

Abstract

The covered interest rate parity condition (CIRP) has been widely used in open macroeconomic analysis, risk management, exchange rate forecasts, and so forth. Due to the recent global financial crises, there have been remarkable changes in the financial markets of the emerging markets. These changes possibly influenced the dynamics of the covered interest rate parity condition. In this paper, we investigate whether the CIRP dynamics has changed, and what is the nature of the regime changes. To do this, we propose and estimate multiple-state Markov regime switching models using a Bayesian MCMC method. Our estimation results indicate that the default risk or the deviation from the CIRP has been decreased after the crisis. It seems to be associated with the more active interaction between the short-term bond market and the short-term foreign exchange market than before. The tightened relation of these two financial markets is caused by the arbitrage transaction of foreign investors.

Keywords

HB1-3840, 마코프 국면전환모형(MarkovRegime Switching Model), H, Industries. Land use. Labor, 베이지안 계량분석(Bayesian Estimation), 단기 원화시장(Shortterm Money Market), Social Sciences, Economic theory. Demography, HD28-9999, 외화자금시장(Foreign Currency Market)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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