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https://doi.org/10.23865/cdf.2...
Part of book or chapter of book . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
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Authors: Jarle Trondal; John Erik Fossum;

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Abstract

This chapter summarizes key findings from the book and outlines possible future avenues for working with scenarios for practitioners. The chapter suggests that a one-dimensional focus on a particular future trajectory for either Norway or the EU in today’s uncertain world is likely to be poorly anchored in empirical realities. Conversely, an overly strong focus on current phenomena might become conservative and myopic by not pointing beyond the present. To escape these challenges, this book has established and analyzed three different scenarios that outline distinct future trajectories for Europe and implications for Norway. This chapter briefly summarizes findings from the analyses in the book’s different policy areas. The last part of the chapter moves beyond thinking about future scenarios and their implications by asking: How can Norway systematically establish scenario thinking in practical policymaking and public administration, which in turn may be consequential for policymaking and societal developments? We argue that a necessary, yet not sufficient, tool is to institutionalize scenario thinking in the government apparatus. This final part of the chapter outlines the contours of an administrative policy for scenario thinking and practice.

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
hybrid