Abstract This paper describes a new model for predicting multiaxial fatigue crack initiation in rubber. The work is motivated by a need to predict crack initiation life in tires, based on strain histories obtained via finite element analysis. The new model avoids the need to explicitly include cracks in the finite element model, and applies when the cracks are small compared to the strain gradient. The model links the far‐field strain state to the energy release rate of an assumed intrinsic flaw. This is accomplished through a new parameter, the cracking energy density. The cracking energy density is the portion of the total elastic strain energy density that is available to be released on a given material plane. The model includes an algorithm to select the material plane which minimizes the life prediction for a given strain history. The consequences of the theory for simple strain histories are presented, as well as predictions for more complicated histories. The theory is compared with published data, and with new results from recent combined axial/torsion fatigue experiments.