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The Private SDR: An Assessment of Its Risk and Return (Le DTS prive: risques et rendement) (El DEG privado: Evaluacion de su riesgo y rendimiento)

Authors: Pierre Van Den Boogaerde;

The Private SDR: An Assessment of Its Risk and Return (Le DTS prive: risques et rendement) (El DEG privado: Evaluacion de su riesgo y rendimiento)

Abstract

This paper reviews the relative attractiveness, in terms of both total return and risk, of SDR-denominated investments during 1977-82. It simulates investments by sequentially using each of the component currencies and the SDR itself as a base currency and investing alternatively in the domestic base currency, in the four other component currencies, and in SDRs. The starting point is that if the correlation coefficients between the returns on the different currencies included in the SDR basket are lower than one, the standard deviation of the SDR will be less than the weighted average of the individual standard deviations. The outcome fully meets the expectation: the standard deviation of the total return on the SDR is lower than the standard deviations of the returns on each of its component currencies, whichever currency is used as a unit of account, with the exception of the pairwise relationship between the deutsche mark and the French franc owing to both currencies' inclusion in the European Monetary System (EMS). The study also demonstrates that an assessment of the volatility of the SDR and its component currencies, as measured by the beta coefficient, does not provide an adequate measure of riskiness for the non-dollar currencies, because of the relatively low correlation between these currencies and the SDR during the study period. Finally, and for whichever currency is used as a unit of account, the SDR had an above-average total return during the period studied. An investment in SDRs thus produced above-average yields and represented a much lower risk than investments in any of its constituent currencies in the study period, which encompasses both a period of weakness and a period of strength of the dollar. Consequently, a number of international market operators could be attracted to the idea of using the SDR as a unit of account. /// L'auteur analyse l'attrait relatif, sous forme A la fois de rendement total et de risques, des placements libellA©s en DTS pendant la pA©riode 1977-82. Il procA¨de A une simulation des placements en prenant, successivement, les diverses monnaies du panier puis le DTS lui-mAame comme monnaie de base et en effectuant tour A tour des placements dans la monnaie de base intA©rieure, dans les quatre autres monnaies du panier et en DTS. L'auteur pose au dA©part que, si les coefficients de corrA©lation entre les rendements des diffA©rentes monnaies incluses dans le panier du DTS sont infA©rieurs A l'unitA©, l'A©cart type du DTS sera infA©rieur A la moyenne pondA©rA©e des divers A©carts types. Les rA©sultats confirment pleinement cette hypothA¨se: l'A©cart type du rendement total du DTS est infA©rieur aux A©carts types des redements de chacune des monnaies qui composent le panier, quelle que soit la monnaie retenue comme unitA© de compte, sauf dans le cas de la relation entre le deutsche mark et le franc franA§ais, en raison de l'appartenance de ces deux monnaies au SystA¨me monA©taire europA©en (SME). L'A©tude dA©montre A©galement qu'une A©valuation de la volatilitA© du DTS et de ses composantes, exprimA©e par le coefficient beta, ne permet pas de mesurer de maniA¨re satisfaisante le degrA© de risque des placements en monnaies autres que le dollar, en raison de la corrA©lation relativement faible constatA©e entre ces monnaies et le DTS au cours de la pA©riode considA©rA©e. Enfin, et ce, quelle que soit la monnaie retenue comme unitA© de compte, le rendement total du DTS a A©tA© supA©rieur A la moyenne pendant cette mAame pA©riode. Les placements en DTS ont donc eu un rendement plus A©levA© que la moyenne et ont A©tA© beaucoup moins risquA©s que les placements dans l'une quelconque des monnaies du panier pendant la pA©riode A©tudiA©e, c'est-A -dire A une A©poque oA¹ le dollar a connu, tour A tour, une pA©riode de faiblesse et une pA©riode de fermetA©. En consA©quence, un certain nombre d'opA©rateurs sur le marchA© international pourraient juger attractive l'idA©e d'utiliser le DTS comme unitA© de compte. /// En el presente trabajo se analiza, desde el punto de vista del rendimiento y el riesgo totales, el grado de atracciA³n que podrA­a haber despertado la inversiA³n denominada en DEG durante el perA­odo 1977-82. Para ello se han simulado inversiones utilizando en forma secuencial cada una de las monedas componentes y el propio DEG como monedas de base y se ha supuesto la inversiA³n alternativamente, en la moneda nacional de base, en las otras cuatro monedas componentes y en DEG. El punto de partida es que, si los coeficientes de correlaciA³n entre el rendimiento de las diferentes monedas que componen la cesta del DEG son menores que la unidad, la desviaciA³n tA­pica del DEG serAi menor que la media ponderada de las distintas desviaciones tA­picas. Los resultados confirman plenamente las expectativas: La desviaciA³n tA­pica del rendimiento total de la inversiA³n en DEG es menor que las desviaciones tA­picas del rendimiento de la inversiA³n en cada una de las monedas que lo componen, cualquiera que sea la moneda que se utilice como unidad de cuenta, con excepciA³n de una relaciA³n paritaria entre el marco alemAin y el franco francA©s, debido a la inclusiA³n de ambas monedas en el Sistema Monetario Europeo (SME). El estudio demuestra tambiA©n que una evaluaciA³n de la volatilidad del DEG y de las monedas que lo componen, medida por el coeficiente beta, no permite determinar con precisiA³n el riesgo de las monedas distintas del dA³lar debido a la correlaciA³n relativamente baja entre esas monedas y el DEG durante el perA­odo del estudio. Por Aoltimo, e independientemente de la moneda que se utilice como unidad de cuenta, el DEG acusA³ un rendimiento total superior al promedio durante el perA­odo analizado. De manera que en el perA­odo estudiado, que comprende un perA­odo de debilidad y otro de firmeza del dA³lar, la inversiA³n en DEG produjo un rendimiento superior a los promedios y fue mucho menos arriegada que la inversiA³n en cualesquiera de las monedas que lo componen. En consecuencia, la idea de utilizar el DEG como unidad de cuenta podrA­a resultar atractiva para muchos de quienes operan en el mercado internacional.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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