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Probabilistic Microeconomics

Authors: John J. McCall;

Probabilistic Microeconomics

Abstract

This paper is a survey of recent developments in probabilistic microeconomics. While research on the foundations of utility theory is not reviewed, a general Von Neumann-Morgenstern model of decision-making under uncertainty is presented. Alternative measures of risk aversion are examined within the context of decision-making by both competitive and monopolistic firms. The behavior of these firms is strongly influenced by their attitudes toward risk, and many of the conventional deterministic results are, in general, not true in a world of uncertainty. Several methods for ameliorating the effects of uncertainty are investigated. All are special cases of insurance and include ordinary insurance policies for contingencies like fire, theft, accident, etc., and more subtle variations like preventive maintenance and inventory control. A useful device for analyzing behavior under uncertainty is also discussed. This is martingale theory, which was developed by probabilists and appears to have many applications in the economics of uncertainty.

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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    36
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 1%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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Found an issue? Give us feedback
citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
36
Average
Top 1%
Top 10%
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