To many observers, both inside and outside Russia, Russian foreign policy is inchoate, difficult to define, even more so to predict, and harder still to respond to in a consistent and coherent fashion. Since 1991, its general pattern has swung from one of cooperation with the West to one of direct confrontation over issues such as Bosnia, NATO expansion, and Russia's assertion of a sphere of influence in other post-Soviet states. Why this shift has occurred and how the West should respond have become important policy questions. Many locate the source of change and confusion in Russsia's turbulent domestic politics. Alexei Arbatov flatly declared, "Present-day Russian domestic political conflicts and Russia's foreign policy uncertainties are closely intertwined," and this conclusion has been echoed by many others.' When considering an appropriate Western response, one might therefore suggest that if the source of Russian policy is at the domestic level, then the West must try to influence as best it can Russian domestic politics to strengthen the position of pro-Western, democratic reformers. This, many would claim, can best be done by pursuing a wide-ranging partnership with Russia. Not all would agree with this analysis or prescription. Citing the apparent success of the cold war containment policy and still suspicious of Moscow's intentions, one might argue that the West should be cautious in pursuing partnership and instead act more confidently in asserting its own interests and power. According to this line of thought, Russia cannot challenge the West. Launching a preventive war is out of the question. Faced with a determined Western policy, Russia, regardless of the political configuration in Moscow, will be forced