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Predicting Annual Net Earnings with Quarterly Earnings Time-Series Models

Authors: Kenneth S. Lorek;

Predicting Annual Net Earnings with Quarterly Earnings Time-Series Models

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to provide additional evidence regarding the ability of quarterly time-series models to predict annual net earnings. The degree of accuracy of predictions of annual net earnings is of direct interest to researchers for such purposes as testing models of firm valuation, the relationship between unanticipated earnings and stock price changes, and the information content of voluntary disclosures of annual earnings forecasts by management. In this study, I examine the predictive ability of several different quarterly time-series models. These models include a set of five relatively simplistic ones, firm-specific BoxJenkins (BJ) models, and three parsimonious BJ models. The first section of the paper discusses time-series analysis with particular emphasis on quarterly earnings data. The next section discusses the research on parsimonious BJ models. Remaining sections provide a review of the methodology, including the data, the time-series prediction models, the error measures and hypotheses, the predictive ability results, and finally, a summary and conclusions.

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
48
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
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