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Econometrica
Article
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Econometrica
Article . 1997 . Peer-reviewed
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Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments

Instrumental variables regression with weak instruments
Authors: Douglas Staiger; James H. Stock;

Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments

Abstract

Summary: This paper develops asymptotic distribution theory for single-equation instrumental variables regression when the partial correlations between the instruments and the endogenous variables are weak, here modeled as local to zero. Asymptotic representations are provided for various statistics, including two-stage least squares (TSLS) and limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimators, Wald statistics, and statistics testing overidentification and endogeneity. The asymptotic distributions are found to provide good approximations to sampling distributions with 10-20 observations per instrument. The theory suggests concrete guidelines for applied work, including using nonstandard methods for construction of confidence regions. These results are used to interpret \textit{J. D. Angrist} and \textit{A. B. Krueger}'s [Quart. J. Econ. 106, 979-1014 (1991)] estimates of the returns to education: whereas TSLS estimates with many instruments approach the OLS estimate of \(6\%\), the more reliable LIML estimates with fewer instruments fall between \(8\%\) and \(10\%\), with a typical \(95\%\) confidence interval of \((5\%,\;15\%)\).

Keywords

overidentification tests, two-stage least squares, Wald statistics, single-equation instrumental variables regression, confidence regions, Asymptotic distribution theory in statistics, limited information maximum likelihood, endogeneity tests, Applications of statistics to economics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6K
Top 0.01%
Top 0.01%
Top 1%
bronze