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Review of Agricultural Economics
Article . 1997 . Peer-reviewed
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Commodity Futures Prices as Forecasts

Authors: Tomek, William G.;

Commodity Futures Prices as Forecasts

Abstract

Futures markets provide contemporaneous price quotations for a constellation of contracts with maturities thirty or more months in the future, and a large literature exists about interpreting these prices as forecasts. Futures markets simultaneously determine a price level and price differences appropriate to contract temporal definitions. Futures prices can efficiently reflect a complex set of factors but still provide poor forecasts. Forecasts based on quantitative models cannot, however, improve on efficient futures prices as forecasting agents; empirical models provide as poor, if not poorer, forecasts. I discuss analogous ideas for basis forecasts.

Country
United States
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Keywords

Marketing,, 330

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    70
    popularity
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    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
70
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
bronze