
doi: 10.2307/1235809
The major fault of the current series on corporate profits is the time lag. According to the Commerce Department, the figure for the third quarter of this year probably will not be available until late in January 19611-a lag of four months following the end of the quarter. The lag in publication of information on corporate profits is a handicap to those attempting to interpret current trends in economic activity. Early last fall, some analysts predicted, on the basis of various corporate financial reports appearing in the newspapers, that profits would be lower for the third quarter. However, as this is written, we still do not have confirmation of this judgment, and it is already time to be concerned about what fourth quarter profits will be. The National Bureau of Economic Research includes the series on corporate profits in its latest (1960) group of leading indicators. However, a figure which appears in January and tells us what a leading indicator was doing in August loses most of its value for predicting future trends. It should be recognized that the lag has been reduced in recent years, but it remains greater than that for series with which it is usually compared. For example, a glance at the November Economic Indicators reveals that the estimate of national income for the third quarter has not been prepared because of one missing component-the figure for corporate profits. Total corporate profits are estimated on a quarterly basis by the Office of Business Economics of the Department of Commerce, using data on different industry sectors which are collected from a wide variety of sources. This information is then applied to detailed benchmark data computed by the Internal Revenue Service from corporate income tax returns, the final figure being published as a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
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