
doi: 10.2298/eka1816035m
This paper provides econometric evidence of the interest parity puzzle in Serbia over the period 2005-2016. Econometric findings are derived from the following techniques: long-run parameter estimation based on the autoregressive distributed lag model, impulse response function computed from the bivariate vector autoregressive model, and estimation of the two-regime Markov switching parameter model. Our results indicate that a positive interest differential corrected for country risk leads to significant dinar appreciation against the euro. The intensity of this impact is different across sub-periods of low exchange rate variability and high variability. Exchange rate movements are found to appreciate more strongly during lower variability episodes. Preliminary econometric investigation of four other European emerging economies documents similar findings only for Romania. Our results suggest that there is a huge incentive for shortterm carry trades in Serbia, regardless of substantial risks.
Regime switching, ARDL bounds test, Interest parity puzzle, Country risk, HD72-88, Economic growth, development, planning, Uncovered interest rate parity, VAR model
Regime switching, ARDL bounds test, Interest parity puzzle, Country risk, HD72-88, Economic growth, development, planning, Uncovered interest rate parity, VAR model
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 3 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
