
RESUMEN Este estudio propone una nueva metodología para explicar el efecto de las variaciones del gasto público sobre los cambios de la producción agregada teniendo en cuenta la deuda pública soberana. Se utiliza un modelo multivariable con umbral que permite endogeneizar la variable de la deuda pública como porcentaje del producto interno bruto para determinar los cambios estructurales en la relación entre el gasto público y la producción agregada. Utilizando un valor umbral para dividir la muestra en dos conjuntos de observaciones, se muestra que al aumentar la deuda pública, el multiplicador fiscal de muy corto plazo disminuye en Bélgica, no tiene una variación significativa en Italia, incrementa en España y es negativo en el Reino Unido. THE IMPACT OF THE SOVEREIGN DEBT ON FISCAL MULTIPLIER ABSTRACT This research introduces a new methodology to explain levels of aggregate production’s fluctuation when there are changes in government expenditure taking into account an increasing sovereign debt. A multivariable model with a threshold is used to endogenize the debt-to-gdp variable as a determinant of structural changes in the relationship between public spending and aggregate production. Using a threshold value to split the sample into two sets of observations, it is shown in the very short-term that as public debt increases, the fiscal multiplier decreases in Belgium, it has not a significant change in Italy, it increases in Spain, and it becomes negative in the United Kingdom.
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