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Prediction Intervals for ARIMA Models

Authors: Snyder, R. D.; Ord, J. K.; Koehler, A. B.; Snyder, R. D.; Ord, J. K.; Koehler, A. B.;

Prediction Intervals for ARIMA Models

Abstract

The problem of constructing prediction intervals for linear time series (ARIMA) models is examined. The aim is to find prediction intervals which incorporate an allowance for sampling error associated with parameter estimates. The effect of constraints on parameters arising from stationarity and invertibility conditions is also incorporated. Two new methods, based to varying degrees on first-order Taylor approximations, are proposed. These are compared in a simulation study to two existing methods: a heuristic approach and the `plug-in' method whereby parameter values are set equal to their maximum likelihood estimates

Keywords

Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, state space, forecasting, ARIMA, simulation, Bayesian, Holt-Winters, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
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