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EXPECTED VALUES OF COSTS AND REVENUES DEPENDENT ON DROUGHT

Authors: Verhagen, A.M.W.; Hirst, F.; Lloyd, Alan G.; Verhagen, A.M.W.; Hirst, F.; Lloyd, Alan G.;

EXPECTED VALUES OF COSTS AND REVENUES DEPENDENT ON DROUGHT

Abstract

In earlier papers on drought, sequences of wet and dry months were treated as realisations of binomial trials with periodic probabilities of failure (dry months), and the cost-revenue outcomes of alternative drought strategies were handled probabilistically. When costs and revenues may be represented by a set of second degree polynomials over a set of adjacent subranges of the time scale, their expectation may be expressed as a simple closed formula in the twelve probabilities of dry months. As an illustration of the use of these new formulae, means and standard deviations of drought duration calculated in this manner are presented for three typical localities in Queensland. Previously known closed formulae for the mean and the variance in the case where all calendar months have equal probability of being dry emerge as special cases and are verified.

Keywords

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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Average
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