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Macroeconomic Dynamics
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2010 . Peer-reviewed
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UQ eSpace
Article . 2012
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UQ eSpace
Article . 2012
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Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach

Authors: Mitra, Sinchan; Sinclair, Tara M.;

Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach

Abstract

This paper proposes a multivariate unobserved-components model to simultaneously decompose the real GDP for each of the G-7 countries into its respective trend and cycle components. In contrast to previous literature, our model allows for explicit correlation between all the contemporaneous trend and cycle shocks. We find that all the G-7 countries have highly variable stochastic permanent components for output, even once we allow for structural breaks. We also find that common restrictions on the correlations between trend and cycle shocks are rejected by the data. In particular, we find that correlations across permanent and transitory shocks are important both within and across countries.

Countries
United Kingdom, Australia
Keywords

330, Correlations, Real GDP, Permanent-Transitory Decompositions, Business Cycles, Correlations, Real GDP, 2002 Economics and Econometrics, Trend-cycle decompositions, Business cycles, jel: jel:O57, jel: jel:E32, jel: jel:C32

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    popularity
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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
22
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze