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zbMATH Open
Article . 2008
Data sources: zbMATH Open
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2007 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Econometric Theory
Article . 2007 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Testing for Trend

Testing for trend
Authors: Fabio Busetti; Andrew Harvey;

Testing for Trend

Abstract

Summary: The paper examines various tests for assessing whether a time series model requires a slope component. We first consider the simple \(t\)-test on the mean of first differences and show that it achieves high power against the alternative hypothesis of a stochastic nonstationary slope and also against a purely deterministic slope. The test may be modified, parametrically or nonparametrically, to deal with serial correlation. Using both local limiting power arguments and finite-sample Monte Carlo results, we compare the \(t\)-test with the nonparametric tests of \textit{T. J. Vogelsang} [Econometrica 66, No. 1, 123--148 (1998; Zbl 1055.62576)] and with a modified stationarity test. Overall the \(t\)-test seems a good choice, particularly if it is implemented by fitting a parametric model to the data. When standardized by the square root of the sample size, the simple \(t\)-statistic, with no correction for serial correlation, has a limiting distribution if the slope is stochastic. We investigate whether it is a viable test for the null hypothesis of a stochastic slope and conclude that its value may be limited by an inability to reject a small deterministic slope.

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Keywords

Non-Markovian processes: hypothesis testing, Nonparametric hypothesis testing, Cram�r-von Mises distribution, stationarity test, stochastic trend, unit root, unobserved component., Parametric hypothesis testing, jel: jel:C52, jel: jel:C22

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
211
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 0.1%
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