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Irving Fisher, the UIP Puzzle and the 'Peso Problem'

Authors: Rachel A.J. Pownall; Kees C. G. Koedijk; James R. Lothian; Ronald J. Mahieu;

Irving Fisher, the UIP Puzzle and the 'Peso Problem'

Abstract

In this paper, we first review Irving Fisher's seminal work on UIP and on the closely related equation linking interest rates and inflation relation. We go on to re-examine the performance of UIP since the advent of floating exchange rates in the 1970s. Like Fisher a century ago, we find that the failures of UIP are tied in with individual episodes in which errors surrounding exchange-rate expectations have been persistent but in the end transitory. We see evidence of this behavior both in the changed coefficients estimates from rolling regressions. We also find considerable commonality in deviations from UIP and PPP suggesting that these deviations are both driven by a common factor as the forecasting errors in exchange rates. Using a dynamic latent factor model we find that deviations from UIP are almost completely due to forecasting errors in exchange rates. Once the variation in the size of the forecasting errors is taken into account we find empirical support of a unitary value for the implied beta in the Fama regression. Using a number of countries we find unanimous support that deviations from UIP are driven by errors made in forecasting exchange rates, a result which we attribute to Irving Fisher who first mentioned this a century to date.

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Powered by OpenAIRE graph
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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