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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2006 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Pure University of Manchester
Part of book or chapter of book . 2008
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The Economic and Statistical Value of Forecast Combinations under Regime Switching: An Application to Predictable US Returns

Authors: GUIDOLIN, MASSIMO; C. F. Na;

The Economic and Statistical Value of Forecast Combinations under Regime Switching: An Application to Predictable US Returns

Abstract

We address an interesting case - the predictability of excess US asset returns from macroeconomic factors within a flexible regime-switching VAR framework - in which the presence of regimes may lead to superior forecasting performance from forecast combinations. After documenting that forecast combinations provide gains in predictive accuracy and that these gains are statistically significant, we show that forecast combinations may substantially improve portfolio selection.We find that the best-performing forecast combinations are those that either avoid estimating the pooling weights or that minimize the need for estimation. In practice, we report that the best-performing combination schemes are based on the principle of relative past forecasting performance. The economic gains from combining forecasts in portfolio management applications appear to be large, stable over time, and robust to the introduction of realistic transaction costs. © 2008 Emerald Group Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

Countries
Italy, United Kingdom
Related Organizations
Keywords

Forecast combination; Predictability; Multivariate regime switching; Portfolio performance, Portfolio performance, Forecast combination, Multivariate regime switching, Predictability, Forecasting

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze