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Journal of Development Economics
Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2006 . Peer-reviewed
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2006 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Research . 2006
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The Elusive Costs of Sovereign Defaults

Authors: Ugo Panizza; Eduardo Levy Yeyati;

The Elusive Costs of Sovereign Defaults

Abstract

Few would dispute that sovereign defaults entail significant economic costs, including, most notably, important output losses. However, most of the evidence supporting this conventional wisdom, based on annual observations, suffers from serious measurement and identification problems. To address these drawbacks, we examine the impact of default on growth by looking at quarterly data for emerging economies. We find that, contrary to what is typically assumed, output contractions precede defaults. Moreover, we find that the trough of the contraction coincides with the quarter of default, and that output starts to grow thereafter, indicating that default episode seems to mark the beginning of the economic recovery rather than a further decline. This suggests that, whatever negative effects a default may have on output, those effects result from anticipation of a default rather than the default itself.

Keywords

Staatsbankrott, Wirtschaftswachstum, ddc:330, Öffentliche Schulden, Soziale Kosten, Financial Sector, WP-581, Schwellenländer, Makroökonomischer Einfluss, Schätzung

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    140
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
140
Top 1%
Top 1%
Top 10%
bronze