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Testing Dependence Among Serially Correlated Multi-Category Variables

Authors: Pesaran, M.H.; Timmermann, A.;

Testing Dependence Among Serially Correlated Multi-Category Variables

Abstract

The contingency table literature on tests for dependence among discrete multi-category variables assume that draws are independent, and there are no tests that account for serial dependencies − a problem that is particularly important in economics and finance. This paper proposes a new test of independence based on the maximum canonical correlation between pairs of discrete variables. We also propose a trace canonical correlation test using dynamically augmented reduced rank regressions or an iterated weighting method in order to account for serial dependence. Such tests are useful, for example, when testing for predictability of one sequence of discrete random variables by means of another sequence of discrete random variables as in tests of market timing skills or business cycle analysis. The proposed tests allow for an arbitrary number of categories, are robust in the presence of serial dependencies and are simple to implement using multivariate regression methods.

Country
United Kingdom
Keywords

ddc:330, Tests of Predictability, Contingency Tables, canonical correlations, serial dependence, Contingency Tables, Canonical Correlations, Serial Dependence, Tests of Predictability, contingency tables, Serial Dependence, tests of predictability, C52, Canonical Correlations, contingency tables, canonical correlations, serial dependence, tests of predictability, C42, C22, C12, jel: jel:C52, jel: jel:C42, jel: jel:C12, jel: jel:C22

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    166
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 1%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
166
Top 1%
Top 1%
Average
Green
bronze