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International Journal of Forecasting
Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
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Asymmetric Loss Functions and the Rationality of Expected Stock Returns

Authors: Aretz, Kevin; Bartram, Söhnke M.; Pope, Peter F.;

Asymmetric Loss Functions and the Rationality of Expected Stock Returns

Abstract

We combine the innovative approaches of Elliott, Komunjer, and Timmermann (2005) and Patton and Timmermann (2007) with a block bootstrap to analyze whether asymmetric loss functions can rationalize the S&P 500 return expectations of individual forecasters from the Livingston Surveys. Although the rationality of these forecasts has often been rejected, earlier studies have relied on the assumption that positive and negative forecast errors of identical magnitudes are equally important to forecasters. Allowing for homogenous asymmetric loss, our evidence still strongly rejects forecast rationality. However, if we allow for variation in asymmetric loss functions across forecasters, not only do we find significant differences in preferences, but also we can often no longer reject forecast rationality. Our conclusions raise serious doubts about the homogeneous expectations assumption often made in asset pricing, portfolio construction and corporate finance models. © 2009 International Institute of Forecasters.

Countries
Italy, United Kingdom
Keywords

330, Price forecasting, Financial markets, General loss functions, financial markets, general loss functions, GMM block bootstrapping, Livingston Survey, price forecasting, FINANCIAL MARKETS, GENERAL LOSS FUNCTIONS, GMM BLOCK BOOTSTRAPPING, LIVINGSTON SURVEY, PRICE FORECASTING, BUSINESS AND INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT, GMM block bootstrapping, Livingston Survey, jel: jel:G15, jel: jel:G12, jel: jel:G11

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    19
    popularity
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    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
19
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
bronze