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How Well Can One Predict Stock Price Based on Quarterly Earnings Forecasts? An Application of the Ohlson Model and Bayesian Statistics

Authors: Huong N. Higgins; Balgobin Nandram; Qunfang Flora Lu;

How Well Can One Predict Stock Price Based on Quarterly Earnings Forecasts? An Application of the Ohlson Model and Bayesian Statistics

Abstract

Over the past decade of accounting and finance research, the Ohlson model has been often examined as a framework for equity valuation. In this paper, we apply Bayesian statistics to the Ohlson model, and evaluate improvement in predictive power. Specifically, focusing on SP500 firms, we use 23 quarters of data starting in Q1 1999 to estimate the prediction models, which we then use to predict stock price in Q4 of 2004. We use two types of estimation approaches, maximum likelihood and Bayesian statistics. We find that Bayesian analyses generally result in smaller predictive errors than maximum likelihood analyses. We perform several transformations, however transformations of the maximum likelihood models do not outweigh the usefulness of applying Bayesian statistics. We conclude that applying Bayesian statistics is a fruitful way to improve the Ohlson's classical framework for equity valuation.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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