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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2005 . Peer-reviewed
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Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates

Authors: Bruno Ducoudré;

Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates

Abstract

Since the Seventies, increases in public debt and deficits have raised concern about their effects on interest rates. Growing public debt and persistent deficits would have led to inflation pressures, which would have forced central Banks to raise the short-term interest rate. Expectations of these pressures by financial markets would involve a rise in long-term interest rates and crowding-out effects. This paper studies the fiscal policy effects on interest rates from a theoretical and empirical point of view. Fiscal policy effects mainly depend on the full-employment hypothesis, the type of shocks affecting the economy, the type of fiscal policy, and agents' expectations about it. The estimated effects of fiscal policy variables in central Banks' reaction functions and long-term interest rate equations for the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan for the 1980-2003 period show that these effects are not mechanical and vary from one country to another. All in all, fiscal policies would not have entailed a generalized increase in real interest rates over that period.

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    3
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
bronze