
handle: 10419/19063
This paper focuses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of expectations.Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations hypothesis which focuses on average expectationsrather than individual expectations is advanced. Other models of expectations formation, such as the adaptive expectations hypothesis, are briefly discussed. Testable implications of rational and extrapolative models of expectationsare reviewed and the importance of the loss function for the interpretation of the test results is discussed. The paper thenprovides an account of the various surveys of expectations, reviews alternative methods of quantifying the qualitative surveys, and discusses the use of aggregate and individual survey responses in the analysis of expectations and for forecasting.
tests of rational expectations, models of expectations formation, ddc:330, survey data, C50, C40, Rationale Erwartung, C80, Erwartungstheorie, Classification-JEL: C40, C50, C53, C80, models of expectation formation, survey data, heterogeneity, tests of rational expectations, heterogeneity, C53, models of expectations formation, survey data, heterogeneity, tests of rational expectations, jel: jel:C80, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:C50, jel: jel:C40
tests of rational expectations, models of expectations formation, ddc:330, survey data, C50, C40, Rationale Erwartung, C80, Erwartungstheorie, Classification-JEL: C40, C50, C53, C80, models of expectation formation, survey data, heterogeneity, tests of rational expectations, heterogeneity, C53, models of expectations formation, survey data, heterogeneity, tests of rational expectations, jel: jel:C80, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:C50, jel: jel:C40
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 13 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
