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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao https://doi.org/10.2...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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Model Risk in Physical Risk Models

Authors: Natee Amornsiripanitch; Siddhartha Biswas; David Wylie;

Model Risk in Physical Risk Models

Abstract

Model risk is the uncertainty in model-derived point estimates of unobserved risks. This paper studies model risk in the setting of residential physical risk assessment by analyzing the outputs of two prominent risk modelers. We document five facts about model risk in physical risk models, defined as the absolute difference in the two modelers' estimates of average annual loss (AAL) for the same property and set of perils (flood, hurricane wind, and wildfire). (i) For the average single-family residence, model risk is expected to cost $322 per year, which is approximately equal to the mean of each modeler's AAL estimates. (ii) Aggregating the risk estimates up to the tract or county level does not substantially reduce the disagreement. (iii) Model risk is disproportionately borne by economically vulnerable households. (iv) There is little association between model risk and insurance premiums. (v) Net migration rates are higher in places with higher levels of model risk. Taken together, these facts imply that uncertainty about estimates of physical risk is not appropriately priced by economic agents.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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