
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.7075305
Gold has historically moved inversely with the real interest rate. That relationship broke after 2021: real yields rose to decade highs while gold doubled. On the pre-2022 anchor, by the end of 2025, gold trades at more than four times its real-rate-implied value. The break is in the level, not the mechanics: gold's high-frequency sensitivity to real rates barely moved, so a new, slow-moving demand sits on top. I interpret it as a repricing of reserve safety, with de-dollarization its leading component, and bring four kinds of evidence: a reserve-portfolio model with seizure risk that reproduces the pattern; gold-specificity against the metals complex and the sovereign safe havens; robustness to fiscal, monetary and retail explanations, with gold ETFs net sellers; and a price-based measure that recovers a demand shift the opaque official quantity data miss. A model pricing gold off real rates alone now misses an important component.
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