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Gold's Missing Anchor: The Real-Rate Decoupling and the Reserve-Safety Premium

Authors: Orhan Torul;

Gold's Missing Anchor: The Real-Rate Decoupling and the Reserve-Safety Premium

Abstract

Gold has historically moved inversely with the real interest rate. That relationship broke after 2021: real yields rose to decade highs while gold doubled. On the pre-2022 anchor, by the end of 2025, gold trades at more than four times its real-rate-implied value. The break is in the level, not the mechanics: gold's high-frequency sensitivity to real rates barely moved, so a new, slow-moving demand sits on top. I interpret it as a repricing of reserve safety, with de-dollarization its leading component, and bring four kinds of evidence: a reserve-portfolio model with seizure risk that reproduces the pattern; gold-specificity against the metals complex and the sovereign safe havens; robustness to fiscal, monetary and retail explanations, with gold ETFs net sellers; and a price-based measure that recovers a demand shift the opaque official quantity data miss. A model pricing gold off real rates alone now misses an important component.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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