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Article . 2005 . Peer-reviewed
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Research . 2005
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A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve

Authors: Timothy Cogley; Argia M. Sbordone;

A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve

Abstract

The foundation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) is a model of price setting with nominal rigidities that implies that the dynamics of inflation are well explained by the evolution of real marginal costs. In this paper, we analyze whether this is a structurally invariant relationship. We first estimate an unrestricted time-series model for inflation, unit labor costs, and other variables, and present evidence that their joint dynamics are well represented by a vector autoregression (VAR) with drifting coefficients and volatilities. We then apply a two-step minimum distance estimator to estimate deep parameters of the NKPC. Given estimates of the unrestricted VAR, we estimate parameters of the NKPC by minimizing a quadratic function of the restrictions that this theoretical model imposes on the reduced form. Our results suggest that it is possible to reconcile a constant-parameter NKPC with the drifting-parameter VAR; therefore, we argue that the price-setting model is structurally invariant.

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Keywords

VAR-Modell, ddc:330, Neukeynesianische Makroökonomik, Inflation, Phillips-Kurve, E31, Phillips curve ; Vector autoregression ; Inflation (Finance) ; Keynesian economics ; Econometric models

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
20
Average
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze