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Geopolitical Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings

Authors: In Huh; Jiyoun An;

Geopolitical Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings

Abstract

This study examines whether geopolitical risk is associated with sovereign credit ratings. Using an annual panel of 36 countries over 1994–2024, we estimate ordered logit models based on sovereign foreign-currency long-term ratings from three major credit rating agencies. The analysis distinguishes between-country and within-country components of geopolitical risk and other explanatory variables. The results show that increases in geopolitical risk within countries are consistently associated with lower sovereign credit ratings, whereas the between-country association is more sensitive to model specification and sample composition. Additional analysis provides selective evidence on potential macroeconomic and fiscal channels, with robust support emerging from the within-country inflation channel. Overall, the findings suggest that rising geopolitical risk is reflected in lower sovereign credit ratings over time.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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