
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.6832402
This study examines whether geopolitical risk is associated with sovereign credit ratings. Using an annual panel of 36 countries over 1994–2024, we estimate ordered logit models based on sovereign foreign-currency long-term ratings from three major credit rating agencies. The analysis distinguishes between-country and within-country components of geopolitical risk and other explanatory variables. The results show that increases in geopolitical risk within countries are consistently associated with lower sovereign credit ratings, whereas the between-country association is more sensitive to model specification and sample composition. Additional analysis provides selective evidence on potential macroeconomic and fiscal channels, with robust support emerging from the within-country inflation channel. Overall, the findings suggest that rising geopolitical risk is reflected in lower sovereign credit ratings over time.
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