
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.6752739
Livestock expansion frequently intensifies interactions between domestic animals and large carnivores, often resulting in conflict. The Andean bear (Tremarctos ornatus) is frequently associated with cattle conflict despite its predominantly herbivorous diet. We used camera-trap surveys and multiple-season occupancy modeling to evaluate spatio-temporal overlap between Andean bears and cattle (Bos taurus) in a Bolivian tropical dry forest. Single-species multi-season models quantified seasonal cattle dynamics, and two-species occupancy models assessed co-occurrence and interaction parameters. Cattle exhibited broader spatial distribution and higher naïve occupancy (0.50) than bears (0.30). Extinction and colonization probabilities varied significantly across seasons for cattle, indicating reduced wet-season landscape use. Bear occupancy and colonization probabilities were negatively associated with cattle detections, while local extinction probability increased. Two-species models revealed low conditional co-occurrence probabilities, suggesting limited sustained spatial overlap. Our results indicate that livestock presence structures Andean bear occupancy dynamics through spatial avoidance rather than predator–prey attraction. Modeling livestock as a dynamic process provides a mechanistic framework for evaluating interaction potential and may improve understanding of perceived versus ecological conflict in multi-use landscapes.
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