
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.6750879
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of currency exchange rate volatility in the post-Bretton Woods international monetary system. It integrates theoretical frameworks, empirical insights, and policy perspectives to examine the causes, measurement, and macroeconomic implications of exchange rate fluctuations. The study draws upon classical and modern exchange rate theories-including Purchasing Power Parity, Interest Rate Parity, the Monetary Model, and Portfolio Balance Theorywhile incorporating behavioral and financial market perspectives to explain short-run deviations from fundamentals. It further evaluates the role of capital flows, central bank interventions, and geopolitical uncertainty in shaping exchange rate dynamics. The paper argues that while exchange rate flexibility facilitates macroeconomic adjustment, excessive volatility imposes significant costs in terms of trade uncertainty, inflation transmission, and financial instability-particularly in emerging economies. Using India as a case study, the paper highlights the challenges of managing currency volatility under a managed float regime. The findings suggest that credible monetary policy, adequate foreign exchange reserves, and deep financial markets are critical in mitigating destabilizing currency fluctuations. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at enhancing exchange rate stability in an increasingly uncertain global environment.
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