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Glacier calving front delineation and early warning using boundary-aware deep learning with spectral surrogate monitoring

Authors: GUO TANG;

Glacier calving front delineation and early warning using boundary-aware deep learning with spectral surrogate monitoring

Abstract

Polar glacier monitoring faces a dual challenge: the high nonlinearity of calving dynamics and the scarcity of labelled observational data. We introduce a computational framework inspired by a new information-geometric construction—the Arithmetic Fisher Manifold—in which the glacier boundary state space is modelled as a non- Euclidean manifold whose curvature encodes structural stability. We introduce a geometrically inspired framework in which analysis of a theoretical Perceptual Operator on this manifold suggests that spectral collapse of its first eigen-gap should precede structural failure. This motivates a computationally tractable surrogate—the variance of the boundary entropy field, denoted Δ(̂)_spec—which we monitor as an early-warning index. The resulting ICE-SAP segmentation pipeline dynamically adapts its loss landscape to the local manifold geometry via a lightweight Meta-Net. Validation on two Vatnajökull outlet glaciers—Breiðamerkurjökull (122 scenes, 14 calving events) and Skeiðarárjökull (106 scenes, 12 events; 64.0558° N, 17.2081°W)—shows that ICE-SAP achieves consistent Boundary-IoU improvements of 8.7–8.9 percentage points over a standard U-Net baseline. Precursor signals are detected at a median 18.3 h in advance (Breiðamerkurjökull) and 17.1 h (Skeiðarárjökull), with a combined detection rate of 21/26 events (Fisher exact test: p < 0.001). Sentinel-2 data are sourced from the Copernicus Programme, and calving events are identified using MEaSUREs glacier velocity data. INT8-quantised deployment on a Raspberry Pi 4 achieves 320 mW peak power at 2.3 s per 512×512 tile, demonstrating viability for autonomous in-situ monitoring.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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