Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ arXiv.org e-Print Ar...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6...
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
Article . 2026 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2024
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
versions View all 4 versions
addClaim

Newsvendor under Ambiguity and Misspecification

Authors: Feng Liu; Zhi Chen; Ruodu Wang; Shuming Wang;

Newsvendor under Ambiguity and Misspecification

Abstract

We consider a newsvendor problem with unknown demand distribution, where we distinguish ambiguity under which the newsvendor does not differentiate demand distributions of common characteristics (e.g., mean and variance) and misspecification under which such characteristics might be misspecified (due to, e.g., estimation error and/or distribution shift). Methodology/results: The newsvendor hedges against ambiguity and misspecification by maximizing the worst-case expected profit regularized by a distribution's distance to an ambiguity set of distributions with some specified characteristics. Focusing on the popular mean-variance ambiguity set and optimaltransport cost for the misspecification, we show that the decision criterion of misspecification aversion possesses insightful interpretations as distributional transforms. We derive the closed-form optimal order quantity that generalizes the solution of the seminal Scarf model under only ambiguity aversion. We establish finite-sample performance guarantees that consist of two parts: an in-sample optimal value and an outof-sample effect of misspecification, which can be further decoupled into estimation error and distribution shift. We also extend the framework to multiple products, distributional characteristics specified via optimal transport, and misspecification measured by total variation distance, and derive analytical optimal solutions. Managerial implications: The closed-form solution highlights the impact of misspecification aversion: the optimal order quantity under misspecification aversion can decrease as the price or variance increases, reversing the monotonicity of that under only ambiguity aversion. Hence, ambiguity and misspecification, as different layers of distributional uncertainty, can result in distinct operational consequences. The finitesample performance guarantee theoretically justifies the need to incorporate misspecification aversion in a non-stationary environment, as demonstrated in our experiments with real-world data.

Keywords

Optimization and Control (math.OC), Optimization and Control, FOS: Mathematics

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green