
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.6669091
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a key mode of climate variability that strongly influences oceanographic conditions and marine resource dynamics in the Indian Ocean. This study investigates the linkage between IOD variability, tuna fisheries productivity, and economic performance using the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), catch per unit effort (CPUE), and normalized revenue (REV). The analysis reveals a consistent negative relationship between DMI and CPUE, with higher tuna productivity observed during negative IOD phases, particularly in longline and purse seine fisheries, while artisanal fisheries exhibit weaker and more variable responses. Despite this variability in productivity, revenue shows a persistent and linear decline across all fishing sectors, with a total reduction of approximately 75.6% over the observation period. This divergence suggests that economic outcomes are not solely determined by catch variability but are also shaped by broader systemic pressures. These findings highlight the dual impact of climate variability on both biophysical and economic dimensions of fisheries and underscore the importance of integrating climate indicators into adaptive and ecosystem-based fisheries management strategies in the Indian Ocean.
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