
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.6606380
This study investigates the relationship between security spending, human capital expenditure, and economic growth in Nigeria from 1999 to 2023 using the ARDL framework after unit root tests confirmed first-order integration of the variables. The bounds test confirms the existence of long-run cointegration. In the long run, security spending shows a negative effect on real GDP growth with a coefficient of-13.25 (p = 0.053), while human capital expenditure has a positive coefficient of 9.44 (p = 0.155). Foreign direct investment and inflation record positive coefficients of 1.49 and 3.50 respectively. Short-run results indicate that expenditure shocks are insignificant, but the error correction term is negative and highly significant at-0.958 (p = 0.000), implying about 96% adjustment to longrun equilibrium within one year. Administration-specific estimates reveal varying expenditure effects across the last four democratic regimes. The study concludes that public expenditure effects on growth in Nigeria are administration-specific, with human capital expenditure relatively more growth-enhancing than security spending.
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